During President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi inauguration of the Integrated Medical Complex in Ismailia Governorate today: The Minister of Planning and Economic Development reviews the achievements made within Egypt's Vision 2030
16 February 2021
Dr. Hala El-Said:Egypt is ranked first among Arab countries in the national sustainable development platforms
For the first time, the development agenda deals with balanced regional dimensions, taking into account development at the governorate level
Egypt exceeds 2020 targets in a wide range of economic, social and environmental indicators
The country is witnessing a rapid and steady increase in population growth rates, the number of births has reached 2.332 million a year
Minister of Planning and Economic Development Dr. Hala El-Said, reviewed the development challenges in light of the population increase and its impact on the citizen's health.She also showcased the achievements made concerning Egypt's development vision 2030 and the challenges facing the state.The Minister's statements came during the inauguration of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of the Integrated Medical Complex in Ismailia Governorate today, in addition to several health care projects.El-Said explained that for the first time Egypt's 2030 vision was based on three new pillars, the first of which is that this vision is participatory, as the Egyptian society as a whole, the private sector, civil society, parliamentarians, university professors, media professionals, thinkers and all development partners participated in its preparation.She noted that the second pillar was that for the first time the development agenda dealt with balanced regional dimensions taking into account development at the governorate level, pointing to the Egyptian countryside development initiative launched by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.Finally, the third pillar was setting quantitative targets by setting numbers and monitoring their achievement rates, she stressed.Regarding the Egypt 2030 achievements, she cited the Cambridge University report in 2019, which ranked Egypt in the 92 spot out of 162 countries in sustainable development agenda. In 2020 report Egypt advanced to the 83rd place out of 166 countries, adding that the United Nations Economic and Social Commission, ESCWA, made it clear that Egypt ranks first at the level of Arab countries in the national platforms for sustainable development.El-Said explained that Egypt exceeded it's 2020 targets in a wide range of economic indicators, including the number of months of imports covered by the reserves, the ratio of debt and deficit to GDP, rates of inflation, growth and unemployment. Nevertheless, Egypt also surpassed targets in indicators of the social and environmental dimensions despite global political and economic challenges.Egypt net international reserves now cover eight and half months of commodity imports, a 142% increased over 2020 targets, the minister stated. While inflation recorded 5.3% in FY 2019/20, 134% over the target, the same was echoed in unemployment which recorded 7.3%, with an achievement rate of 127% over the target in 2020.Furthermore, Egypt improved competitiveness indicators to reach the 23rd position, road quality index by achieving 42nd place, and reduction of the number of hepatitis C infections per hundred thousand of the population by 100% as a result of health initiatives.Regarding the most important indicators of the environmental and social dimensions, El-Said indicated that Egypt has exceeded 100% of the target concerning those indicators in terms of life expectancy at birth, the percentage of the population with access to safe drinking water, the percentage of school dropout before the age of 18 years, and the percentage of the electricity services beneficiaries."Egypt achieved positive growth rates compared to countries of the world despite the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the growth rate to 3.6%. Egypt still maintains a high level of balance, whether in the economic growth rate, the low inflation rate and the stability index and the decrease in unemployment to 7.2%, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics," she stressed.Regarding the most prominent challenges facing the state, she cited the women's participation in the labor market, explaining that despite the political support that Egyptian women receive from the political leadership in assuming higher positions in the state, the rates of women's participation remain lower at the national level.Although women participation is higher than the target in the Egyptian government and state institutions, the target for women's participation has not been reached, referring to the plans targeted for work by institutions and ministries in financing small and micro enterprises for women, training programs to qualify women for the labor market, as well as gender-responsive plans and budgets.About the challenge of informal employment, El-Said explained that the plans and policies that have been put in place to achieve the target were the initiatives of financial inclusion, automation of services, and incentives in the Small and Medium Enterprises Law.Regarding population growth, El-Said stressed that it is the biggest challenge even though the Egyptian state is working on the plan for the development of the Egyptian family in complete integration, coherence and coordination between all state agencies, with the President following up on the plan."The country is witnessing a rapid and steady increase in population growth rates, noting that the number of births in 2020 reached 2.332 million per year at a rate of 194,000 births per month, or 6480 births per day, or one birth every 13 seconds," El-Said explained.She noted that despite the efforts of the state, the general trend of the demographic issue in Egypt is moving in the direction of decline and then rise.El-Said presented the analysis of the population pyramid according to the 2006 and 2017 censuses. She clarified that according to the 2006 census, the broad base was the youth from the age of 15 to the age of 24, while in the 2017 census it became from the age of zero to the age of 9 years, as it is the largest age group representing 25% of the population, which would enter the age of the infant in 2030-2042.She stressed that if the necessary demographic policies are not taken, then another population boom is expected in the period between 2030 and 2042.El-Said pointed to the goals of Egypt 2030 vision, explaining that the total fertility rate in 2017 was an average of 3.4 children per woman, and the average moderate scenario target was to reach 2.4 children per woman in 2032 to and 1.9 children per woman in 2052.The best-case scenario is reaching 2.1 children per woman in 2032 and 1.6 children per woman in 2052.The minister explained that if fertility rates continue at an average of 3.4 children per woman, the population in 2032 will reach 130 million citizens, while if the fertility rate is applied according to the average scenario, 7 million births will be reduced in 2032, and 37.6 million births in 2052.While in the best-case scenario, 9.9 million births will be reduced in 2032 and 47.7 million births in 2052.El-Said indicated that public investments directed to human development (health and education) witnessed a 506% growth, recording a total of EGP 225 billion from 2014/2015 until 2020/2021.El-Said explained that there are international successful experiences in reducing the fertility rate, including Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Iran. On the implications of the population increase, she pointed to the increase in unemployment rates, high poverty rates, low per capita educational and health services and the increasing problems of environmental pollution, as well as the decline in the per capita share of water.She indicated that work must be done in parallel to control population growth while improving population characteristics to manage the population issue in Egypt. "High population growth eradicates the results of development efforts and negatively affects the citizen's standard of living and quality of life," the minister noted.El-Said added that if the current fertility rate of 3.4 children/women continued until 2052, then the number of students in pre-university education would reach 40.4 million students, which would require providing 1.8 million teachers, 1.7 million classrooms, which needs four times the current capabilities. Reaching a population of 191.3 million people in 2052 will require the provision of 289,002 doctors, 479,000 nurses, and 812500 hospital beds, nine times the current capabilities.The minister added that by achieving the average scenario of reducing the fertility rate to 1.9 children/women by the year 2052, the number of students in pre-university education stages will reach 25.4 million students, which requires the provision of 1.15 million teachers and one million classrooms, and the population will reach 153.7 million people. This scenario will require 232,800 doctors, 385,500 nurses, and 654,200 beds.